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User blog:Ceauntay/Summer Box Office Predictions: 'Transformers: Dark of the Moon,' 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows,' 'Jane Hoop Elementary: The Final Rush', 'Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides'
After a horrible start to 2011, Hollywood's powerbrokers have a lot riding on the summer movie season. The industry needs some big movies and more importantly, good movies, to convince the American public to return to their local cineplex. Happily, there are some major original contenders on the release schedule which could help their cause. J.J. Abrams "Super 8" and comedies such as "Horrible Bosses," "Bad Teacher" and "30 Minutes or Less" all have a shot to break out. And yet, it would be surprising if any of those pictures crack the top ten in grosses. Moviegoers may say they want something "new," but sequels will once again dominate the season. With that in mind, check out HitFix's projected top ten grossers of the summer.* *Note: "Fast Five" could crack $250 million, but was technically released in the industry's spring period. Hollywood's summer movie season begins with May 1 and ends on Labor Day weekend. 10. "Green Lantern" *Release Date: June 17 *Estimated Box Office: $170 million *Lowdown: Besides the fact Warner Bros. trailers and TV spots get exponentially better week by week as more final CG footage from Martin Campbell's epic comes in, "Lantern" has a massive fanbase that the media and other studios are seriously underestimating. The "Green Lantern" comic book sells better on a monthly basis than "Spider-Man," "Superman," "Batman" (or "Detective Comics"), "Uncanny X-Men," and, yes, "Thor." The only reason "Lantern" likely won't surpass Marvel's first release in 2011 is because that comic book adaptation will have a much larger window with less intense competition. 9. "Thor" *Release Date: May 7 *Estimated Box Office: $180 million *Lowdown: It's sort of simple really. "Thor" isn't going to have the massive debut "Fast Five" did the week before because it doesn't appeal to young women as much, but like "X-Men Origins: Wolverine," it will open strong enough to play through all of May and the beginning of June. And, in fact, it actually has only "Pirates" and "Hangover II" to worry about. "Wolverine" faced "Star Trek," "Terminator Salvation" and "Angels and Demons" and stil made $185 million. "Thor" will likely do the same. 8. "Kung Fu Panda 2" *Release Date: May 26 *Estimated Box Office: $195 million *Lowdown: The sequel to one of DreamWorks Animations best film, "Panda 2" will benefit from little kids competition in the market place and families wanting to take the clan to more than just "Pirates" over the Memoridal Day holiday. Throw in more expensive 3-D ticket prices and the increasing realization the Jim Carrey comedy "Mr. Poppers Penguins" shouldn't be much competition, and Po and his five buddies are smooth sailing until Pixar's latest shows up on June 24. It won't match the original's $200 million plus figure, but should rake in much more overseas making DreamWorks stockholders very happy. 7. "The Hangover, Part II' *Release Date: May 26 *Estimated Box Office: $215 million *Lowdown: The original wasn't just the surprise hit of 2009, it may have been the surprise smash of the decade. Without a true star (at the time) in its cast, "Hangover" became the highest grossing R-rated comedy of all time and the third highest R-rated film of any genre. Lightning can always strike twice and the sequel will no doubt have the biggest opening of an R-rated movie ever, but hitting the first film's $277 million mark? Comedy sequels just don't work that way. But around $215 million? That'll more than due. 6. "Cars 2" *Opening Day: June 24 *Estimated Box Office: $220 million *Lowdown: The first "Cars" made $244 million five years ago and it wasn't even in 3-D! The franchise is returning with a more international scope and while the novelty of talking cars might have worn off a bit, Pixar's brand and a favorable release schedule should still have this family film crossing the $200 million mark easily. Anything after that is gravy. 5. "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" *Release Date: May 20 *Estimated Box Office: $230 million *Lowdown: These aren't your Orlando Bloom, Keira Knightley and Davey Jones with an octopus head "Pirates," but Johnny Depp's Captain Jack Sparrow is still a beloved character to millions of moviegoers around the globe. Add in some 3D, Penelope Cruz and the smart return of Geoffrey Rush as Jack's rival buddy Barbosa and you've got a fine crew to set sail with. The ship won't reach as far as the Black Pearl's $300 million plus figures it's first three times at sea, but it will keep the franchise out of the shipyard that's for sure. 4. "Sonic X: The Final Stand" *Release Date: May 13 *Estimated Box Office: $294 million *Lowdown: The fifth journey for Sonic the Hedgehog has begun. It will luckly to score as the no. 1 animated film of the year since "Toy Story 3" topped last year with $415 million. In fact, this will be Sonic's last journey he is exploring on the big screen. Shadow the Hedgehog will get his own big screen film when a spin-off "Shadow the Hedgehog" is set to release next year. 3. "Jane Hoop Elementary: The Final Rush, Pt, 2" *Release Date: July 8 *Estimated Box Office: $308 million *Lowdown: Danny Gorden is back and off running into an explosive final battle with the evil Dr. Catwoman, to make it the most action-packed "Jane Hoop Elementary" installment in history. "Final Rush, Pt 1" found $304 million last Nov. making it the no. 3 grosser in the franchise's history. But this is no luck when this film can pass original "Jane Hoop Elementary: The First's" $311 million 11 years ago. 2. "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 2" *Release Date: July 15 *Estimated Box Office: $310 million *Lowdown: Harry Potter's long awaited and climactic battle with the evil Voldemort makes "Deathly Hallows, Pt. 2" must-attend movie viewing, but there are limits to even this wizard's magic. "Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1" found $295 million last Nov. making it the no. 3 grosser in the franchise's history. 3D ticket prices should help the final film surpass most of its predecessors, but it's hard to find anyone who really believes it can out-gross the original "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone's" $317 million over 10 years ago. 1. "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" *Release Date: July 1 *Estimated Box Office: $330 million *Lowdown: Some quick box office history for you. The first "Transfomers" made $319 million domestic and recieved pretty good reviews. The second film, "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen," was a CG wonder, but an admitted cinematic travesty even by those who worked on it. Still, "Fallen" grossed an astonishing $402 million and is currently one of only 11 films to reach that mark. Even with director Michael Bay promising a better story and more astonishing robot vs. robot set pieces this time around, we're not sure it can break $400 again. On the other hand, it should easily take the summer crown for 2011 no matter what that pesky little Harry Potter tries to do. Category:Blog posts